MLB Preseason Predictions
As February is just getting started, the MLB season is just around the corner. Starting next week, pitchers and catchers will report to spring training in Arizona and Florida and soon after that, position players will report. But before this season gets started, there are numerous over under lines given by the books that give great upside to betters. (All of these lines are from draft kings sportsbook as of 2/7/2026).
Not only will I give the best over/under lines for win totals, I will give my season award predictions subtracting out the favorites. Then after I will give my postseason predictions with my World Series Champion.
AL East:
New York Yankees Over 91.5 Wins:
The Yankees have hit the over in every 162-game season since 2018 except for 2023 which is the season where Aaron Judge only played 100 games. We saw this exact team last season win 94 games, why not again. They have veterans who are consistent as well as youth who are taking steps every season, this team, while on paper looks the same, got better. They are healthier than last season at the hitting end, and the pitching will be scary once Cole comes back from injury. Watch out for the Yankees this season to contend for the best record in the league.
Boston Red Sox Under 87.5 wins:
The Red Sox are a solid team with numerous great hitters and pitchers. The problem with this team is that these players aren’t always consistent. Trevor Story played his first complete season on the Red Sox last year, Willson Contreras has only played over 135 games one time in his career, numerous holes in the infield filled with Romy Gonzalez and rookie Marcelo Mayer, and aging arms in the rotation and bullpen. All these pieces are going to need to fall into place for this team to succeed. If one of these players or position groups falls apart, then the Red Sox could be in for a long season.
AL Central:
Chicago White Sox Over 66.5: While Chicago has had a rough couple of seasons recently, this offseason they have made some minor under the radar moves. Picking up highly touted international free agent Munetaka Murakami was a great pickup for a couple of years, paired with Austin Hays, Seranthony Dominguez and Jordan Hicks. While these aren’t the flashiest names they are upgrades, and for a team that won 60 games last year, upgrades go a long way. With continued development from young players such as Colson Mongomery, Shane Smith, and Chase Meidroth, I see the White Sox beating this 66.5-win line.
Minnesota Twins Under 73.5: I think most baseball fans can tell that the Twins aren’t contenders for the playoffs anytime soon. After selling basically half of their MLB roster at the 2025 trade deadline, they then were left with Byron Buxton, Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, and a bunch of young players. While some of the players look promising like Matt Wallner and Luke Keaschall, we can tell they are still years off from contention. I assume Joe Ryan will be a hot trade piece soon or at the deadline, and if same with other veterans like Ryan Jeffers and Pablo Lopez. Setting themselves up for the future sounds boring but is important for contention in a couple of years.
AL West:
Athletics Over 75.5 wins: Maybe one of the youngest teams in the whole league. With a core of Nick Kurtz, Jacob Wilson, Lawrence Butler, Tyler Soderstrom, and Shea Langeliers with veterans like Brent Rooker and Jeff McNeil, this team is ready to make a jump in the AL West standings. All these players have shown the ability to have solid hitting seasons, and with a solid rotation headed by Luis Severino and Jeffrey Springs, the A’s are looking to be in my opinion closer to an 82 in team.
Texas Rangers Under 83.5 wins: The Rangers are filled with superstars on both sides of the ball but there is one thing that lacks in each of these players and that is consistency. Corey Seager is one of the best SS in the game when healthy, but most seasons plays around 100 games, Jacob deGrom threw his first healthy season since 2019, Nathan Eovaldi is now 36 and is showing some health issues and newly acquired MacKenzie Gore starts great but slows down throughout the year just to name a few. While Wyatt Langford is one of the better up in coming outfielders, I think this offence will hold them back from winning games especially towards the end of the season.
NL East:
Miami Marlins over 72.5 wins: After a 79-win season in 2025, the Marlins made some very great moves for the future of this ball club, trading away Edward Cabrera for a great haul of prospects was a great start. The young core of this team reminds me a lot of the Athletics from last year, having a great group of youth mixed with the veterans holding them down. With slight changes to the team, I don’t see how they have a similar season to 2025 repeating around the 79-win mark.
Philadelphia Phillies under 90.5 wins: While a lot of people have the back-to-back NL east champions penciled in for a third, it isn’t as sure as we thought. The Phillies team continues to age, and a lot of players have deteriorating stats because of this, most concerning the lack of outfield offense outside of Brandon Marsh. Alec Bohm and Bryson Stott both aren’t consistently hitting the ceilings of what people expected and losing Ranger Suarez in free agency and Zach Wheeler to injury doesn’t help their starting pitching, what was their strongest part of their 2025 season. The lack of depth in their bullpen as well scares me. All of this culminates in a disappointing season for Phillies fans
NL Central:
Milwaukee Brewers over 84.5 wins: Coming off a 2025 season where the Brewers held the best record in all the MLB, the Brewers line is set at 84.5 wins. The only main difference from the previous year was the loss of ace Freddy Peralta but gaining back a few good players who could make an impact this season. An over is almost guaranteed for the Brewers who have been a playoff team 7 of the last 8 years, their bullpen hasn’t wavered, and their lineup hasn’t changed much either. The Brewers are getting doubted win their division for the fourth time in a row.
Chicago Cubs under 88.5 wins: Being the projected favorites in a division after not winning the division in 5 seasons, you would expect some major game changing move at the deadline. Instead, the Cubs lost on the Kyle Tucker sweepstakes where he signed with the Dodgers for 60 million a year. What this team lacks is star power. Alex Bregman is a great player, but he doesn’t carry the same weight as Kyle Tucker. He isn’t that power threat either. While there are players on this team I think can take a step forward like Michael Busch or Moises Ballesteros, I think this team wont be able to cross this 88-win threshold without a star power bat in the middle of their order.
NL West:
San Francisco Giants over 80.5 wins: The Giants have been hovering around 50%-win percentage for the past 4 years. In this time, they have signed several key free agents and completed trades for the long run. I think this is the year that we see the changes for the Giants. A full season with Rafael Devers paired with the rise of a lot of top prospects in their system filling a lot of much needed holes and will show greater improvements. Their last main holes were 2B and depth in their rotation and while they didn’t get top of the line players at that position, the depth still is enough for them to have a winning record this season.
Colorado Rockies under 52.5 wins: 52.5 wins is a very low bar to hit, but if there is any team in the MLB that will, it’s the Rockies. With little changes to their 43 win team, and the continual growth from every other team in the NL west, the Rockies still have a couple years to wait for these top prospects to emerge. Finding a way to get 10 more wins with adding less than 5 players who combine for 5 million dollars seems insurmountable, and relying on the consistent play of Mickey Moniak, Jordan Beck, and Hunter Goodman isn’t promised.
End of Season Awards
AL MVP- Gunnar Henderson +1600
Gunnar Henderson has had 3 full seasons and 2 top 10 MVP seasons. While last season was a little of a down year for him. I think the whole Orioles team will bounce back in a grand way, and Gunnar will return to his MVP form, leading the Orioles back to the playoffs.
AL Rookie of the Year- Samuel Basallo +900
Basallo is one of the top C/1B prospects in the game and you can tell why by his size and power, and with someone who can play DH and do what he does best, this is a great situation. As long as his plate discipline is worked on, the more comfortable he is in the MLB, the more his elite bat speed will show he’s a great player
AL Cy Young- Framber Valdez +2200
The now Detroit Tiger, lands in one of the most favorable situations of MLB pitchers. A pitcher who negates hard contact and leaves everything on the ground will thrive in Comerica Park. With all the thought around his teammate Tarik Skubal, Framber is flying under the radar
NL MVP- Ronald Acuna Jr. +1300
Ronald Acuna Jr. in his small sample size last season returned to his 2023 MVP form. I think just like Gunnar, he will lead this Braves team back to the playoffs. He when healthy, is one of the most electric players on both sides of the ball and definitely has the skills to win a second MVP.
NL Rookie of the Year- Owen Caissee +1900
Caissee will most likely slot in as an everyday outfielder for the Marlins. This playing time, paired with his elite bat speed and barrel% will get him this award. He is one of the reasons I think the Marlins will be a better team than projected.
NL Cy Young- Spencer Schwellenbach +3000
This is the most out there bet but I believe Spencer Schwellenbach, if he puts together a complete season, could win the Cy Young. There are few pitchers in baseball with a better Chase percentage as well as walk percentage. Players don’t hit him that hard because of his 6-pitch mix and could be a sleeper in the NL Cy Young race.
Playoff Predictions
AL Playoffs:
Division winners and odds to win the division:
1. Yankees +160
2. Mariners +110
3. Tigers +110
Wild Card Teams and odds to make the playoffs:
4. Blue Jays -280
5. Orioles +100
6. Royals +160
AL Champion
Blue Jays +600
NL Playoffs:
Division winners:
1. Dodgers -600
2. Brewers +220
3. Mets +175
Wild Card Teams:
4. Giants +215
5. Braves -240
6. Phillies -350
NL Champion
Dodgers +130
While this may seem boring having a repeat of the last World Series, if it was as electric as last year, I would be so excited. The Dodgers are obviously the best team on paper ever with no holes and the best rotation and lineup ever. But they were almost beaten by this Blue Jays team.
In 2026, I think the Blue Jays get revenge on the Dodgers in another 7-game set. The Blue Jays improved their rotation, adding Dylan Cease and Cody Ponce in free agency as well as resigning Shane Bieber and getting Jose Berrios back from injury. 2/4 games lost by the Jays in the 2026 World Series, came from Max Scherzer pitching, and I think if given another chance with better pitching, they won’t disappoint.