FSU vs Louisville Analytical Breakdown

Introduction

Florida State prepares to go on the road this Friday against ACC opponent Louisville. There are some intriguing storylines with this game. Some include that FSU hasn’t won a game away from Doak Campbell Stadium since November of 2023. Louisville is trying to rebound from back-to-back ACC losses after having a statement win against ranked SMU. Both teams through week 5 have shown some promises and weaknesses, but here is what these teams must do to get advantages this weekend.

Above is a graph containing information on Win Probability Added (WPA) by game of both Florida State and Louisville’s first couple games, excluding group of four teams. As for FSU, this seems to show a tail of different games. Against Alabama, FSU started hot on offense and cooled off towards the end, while against Virginia, we see an inverse relationship. SMU’s defense looks to have had FSU figured out because win probability added decreased throughout. Florida State has shown no consistency in their offense throughout each of these three games. Each of their games in order (SMU then Alabama then Virginia), we see their offense is improving with more time above 0. This is important in showing the comfortability in quarterback Ashton Daniels, with running backs and wide receivers, as well as play caller, Mike Norvell with his offensive weapons. FSU needs to look to continue this upward trend to break the two-season drought of road losses

Louisville on the other hand, seems to be constant throughout. Their win percentage added throughout the game tends to hover between 0 and -0.2 and then towards the fourth quarter, that’s where they can separate, for better or for worse. Louisville’s head coach, Jeff Brohm is working with his team and preaching 4 quarters to make sure they can fend off comebacks and keep their offense afloat. With Florida State playing inconsistent defense through their first 3 power 4 games, Louisville is going to want to wear down FSU throughthe first couple quarters and lean on their bulk of scoring through the end when they ramp up and we tire down. To ensure a win, they need to play better through all four quarters as well as succeed in winning the end of the game.

It is very important to tell how great offenses and defenses are producing, we do that by looking at down metrics for the offense vs the opposing team’s defense. We see above Louisville’s offensive and Florida State’s defensive average EPA by down for the past couple of games. We can now compare side by side who has been playing better on which down. The largest takeaway is on the first 3 downs, Louisville is very consistent. They are equally likely to get a large play, first down, or short gain on any down. But each down produces throughout.While FSU’s defense seems to now be peaking towards the end of the 4. FSU needs to force Louisville into these 3rd downs where they have the better success. Louisville seems to be failing on 4th down as well, which largely consists of punts and field goals. This could be another way for FSU to gain an advantage with maybe a blocked field goal or large return.

Conversely, we see that as the downs go on, FSU’s offensive average EPA is improving, peaking at 4th down. FSU has not missed a kick and limited return yards yielding to their great 4th down EPA. Mike Norvell has opened the playbook on the latter downs and has been dialing up more passing plays causing for a gain in EPA in the later downs. Louisville, on the other hand, doesn’t show many gains throughout with their best being 2nd down. FSU can exploit this by using first down to take shots and perform against a defense that usually struggles. Or try to get to a 3rd and manageable where Louisville seems to struggle to get off of the field. Louisville is going to try to do the complete opposite and get FSU into 3rd and long, because to help their weak 3rd down defense, they need to give them all the yards they can.

FSU has shown improvements defensively throughout the season. Obtaining 10 sacks last week, more than we have had in all the others combined, is impressive and shows the work these players and coaches have put in to succeed. As well see above, our average EPA allowed per play defensively has improved every game. This means our defense is limiting the long plays, 1st downs, as well as getting turnovers and getting the ball back. Our defense started out as a weak spot towards the start of the year, but this improvement shows they can play better football. The question is, will this hold up on the road, and against an ACC team looking for their third win.

Key Takeaways

Based on the data researched above, here are the two main things FSU must do to win on the road against Louisville:

1. Continue to grow on defense

• • Generate sacks, whether by pass rush or blitzing

• • Continue to stay efficient on the first 3 downs

2. Play a complete 4 quarter game

• • Don’t wear down as Louisville would want

• • Get out to a lead and play from ahead

Analytics show this game is going to be closer than we think. Louisville’s ability to play well when it matters the most against FSU’s continued improvement through the first couple weeks of the season will show some interesting storylines. We all know these two teams will come in with data on where to improve and what the other team’s weaknesses are; this game will come down to who can execute on the margins and play their brand of football better. This is a pivotal game, not just for record, but for team morale and look for momentum through this stretch of the season, look for teams to play with a different urgency in this game.