NFL Playoff Team Tiers
The 2025-2026 NFL season has been one of the best in recent memory. The end of the season gave us a playoff field with 5 new playoff teams and 7 new division winners. Top teams from last season such as the Chiefs, Ravens, Lions, and Vikings all failed to make the playoffs which has cleared the way for some new contenders. I’m going to attempt to put these teams in tiers as well as give my Super Bowl Prediction.
No Real Shot at the Super Bowl:
Panthers (+20000): The 8-9 Carolina Panthers snuck into the playoffs despite losing their final game of the season to their division rival Buccaneers that also finished with a 8-9 record. The Panthers fans will transition back from their Atlanta fandom in week 18 and root for their team playing in their first playoff game since 2017. The Panthers have had a promising season with stars like Derrick Brown and Jaycee Horn leading their defense and breakout players like Rico Dowdle and rookie Tet McMillian on offense. However, they have the longest Super Bowl odds for a reason and did finish the season under .500. Could they upset the Rams? Maybe. But even if they manage to overcome the Rams at home in round one, I don’t see a path to the SuperBowl for this team.
Steelers (+5000): The Steelers are another team that snuck into the playoffs in week 18 however unlike the Panthers they actually won their game against their division rival Baltimore Ravens. The Steelers are a team that ranks 14th in offensive EPA and 19th in defensive EPA. So, they are not particularly bad at anything but they are not particularly great at anything either. With future Hall of Fame QB Aaron Rodgers at the helm and Super Bowl winning coach Mike Tomlin, anything is possible in a single game. But I have a hard time seeing them make it all the way to the Super Bowl in a tough AFC.
Chargers (+3000): The Chargers put together a solid 11-6 season backed by Justin Herbert who has quietly had a great season. The Chargers defense also ranks 7th in the league in EPA and has been able to cause some of the most turnovers in football. The issue with the chargers lies in their offensive line which ranks 32nd in pass block win rate and 31st in run block win rate. Not great. Herbert could work some magic in a decent matchup versus the Patriots but I don’t see a Super Bowl run with this team.
Packers (+1900): At one point this season I had the Packers as my Super Bowl pick. They were firing on all cylinders after making a splash trade for Micah Parsons in the offseason and seemed like a lock to win the NFC North. Unfortunately for them, the injury bug hit worse than ever. The Packers lost Micah Parsons, Tucker Kraft, Elgton Jenkings, and Devonte Wyatt in a few weeks span. The Packers offense has still been able to keep things rolling after losing Kraft and Jenkings but defense has not been the same since the Wyatt and Parsons injuries. With a fully healthy team next year the Pack could be dangerous but this year the injuries seem too much to overcome.
Could win a game or two:
49ers (+2700): Similarly to the Packers, a fully healthy 49ers squad could’ve been something extremely dangerous in these NFL Playoffs. With a coach and QB who have made it to the biggest stage before it is definitely too early to rule this team out. But after the losses of superstars Nick Bosa and Fred Warner, the defense now ranks 24th in EPA with multiple rookies and second year players playing significant snaps. Still, the 49ers were one week 18 win away from being the 1 seed in the NFC. With a guy like Kyle Shanahan calling plays I think the 49ers could still be dangerous, but the Super Bowl seems a bit bold.
Bears (+2000): The Bears have been one of my favorite teams to watch all season. They have been able to pull out some ridiculous 4th quarter comebacks and win multiple shootouts. The offense is one of the best in the league backed by a really impressive running game. The defense, which only ranks 21st in EPA, leads the league in turnovers as well. I really want to believe in Caleb Williams and first year head coach Ben Johnson but I do think that the Super Bowl will be an uphill battle. If the Bears can maintain some of that 4th quarter magic I really do think an NFC Championship game is possible.
Texans (+1100): The Texans are one of the hottest teams in football winning 9 straight, backed by the best defense in football by EPA. C.J Stroud and the offense has been playing better lately but still haven’t been great. In the AFC, I could really see this Texans team giving any team a run for their money. Where I lack confidence is in their run game. In the playoffs when offenses tend to move slower, having a weak run game can put the offense at a real disadvantage. As much as I like Nico Collins, the Texans don’t have good enough skill position players to get consistent offense. But if the defense keeps playing at this level, anything is possible.
Bills (+1000): Bills are a team that I’ve seen picked to win the Super Bowl by a ton of analysts and fans. A lot of people are saying that this is Josh Allen’s best chance to raise the Lombardi considering that star AFC QB’s such as Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, and Joe Burrow aren’t in his way. My rebuttal to that would be that football is a team sport. As good Allen is, the supporting cast around him is lackluster. James Cook just had the best year of his career which is great but their leading receiver is Khalil Shakir who barely eclipsed 700 yards. The defense has also had its fair share of problems defending the run game. Is Allen one of the best players in football? Yes. Is Allen capable of winning games against great teams? Absolutely. Is he able to win 4 straight games against the best teams in the league on the road? Doubtful.
Patriots (+1000): Drake Maye and the Patriots have had a fairy tale season under new head coach Mike Vrabel. Despite the soft schedule 14 wins is still an impressive feat and has led them to the number 2 seed in the AFC. The Patriots offense is first in EPA despite not having great skill position players and the defense wasn’t too bad either ranking 11th. What gives me confidence with this team is how much I trust both Maye and Vrabel to lead this team in high pressure situations. What I’m really concerned about is how the rest of the roster will play against top competition. The Pats have a really bright future and I could see an AFC championship run, but I do believe a Super Bowl is unlikely.
Eagles (+800): The former Super Bowl champion Eagles are a team that has disappointed most of the season despite being 11-6. The dominance that was displayed last year has very rarely been displayed this season despite having a pretty similar roster. The stellar oline and run game of last year has fallen off this year which has caused a stagnant offense. However, the defense has held up ranking 6th in EPA. I know it might be crazy to count this team out because of the championship pedigree but the playcalling and offensive line concerns doesn’t give me confidence that this team can reach the same heights as last year.
Real Super Bowl Contenders:
Jaguars (+1300): The Jaguars have been one of my favorite stories this season. The Jags, like their division rival Texans, are one of the hottest teams in the league boasting an 8 game winning streak which included a win against the 1 seed Denver Broncos. Liam Coen has created an electrifying offense run by Trevor Lawrence in what has been the best season of his career. Not only has the offense been clicking but the defense ranks 3rd in defensive EPA. This mixture of good offense and good defense is especially dangerous considering they might also have the best kicker in football in Cam Little. Everything seems to be pointing to a Super Bowl run in Jacksonville, but FanDuel has them as the 8th highest odds to win it all. Why is that? My guess would be the lack of experience and inconsistency throughout the team including first year head coach Liam Coen. Even with this inexperience the Jags are a team no one wants to face right now.
Broncos (+650): The Broncos were able to knock off the Chiefs for the AFC West Title for the first time since 2015. Headlined by a great defense and great offensive line, Sean Payton has been everything the Broncos could’ve hoped for after trading a first round pick for him. When I look at this Broncos team I see very little holes. Bo Nix isn’t the greatest QB but he is solid enough to lead an offense with good weapons and great protection. The defense also has superstars on every level including Pat Surtain, Nik Bonnito, and Alex Singleton. This roster with Sean Payton at head coach is going to be extremely difficult to beat, especially when they had home field advantage throughout the AFC.
Rams (+430): The Rams have been favorites for the Super Bowl almost the entire year until the final few weeks. The two recent losses to the Seahawks and Falcons dropped them from the 1 seed to the 5 seed which will make winning the NFC that much harder. However, if any team can do it, it’s one led by Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford. The importance of getting Devante Adams and Kevin Dotson back for the playoffs cannot be understated and a first round matchup against the Panthers should be a get right game. When this team is clicking, they are the most dangerous team in the field.
Seahawks (+390): The Seahawks have the highest odds to win the Super Bowl for good reason. The Seahawks defense has been elite this season ranking 2nd in EPA. And Despite their offense ranking only 15th, they are third in points scored this season. With elite skill players, an elite head coach, and an elite defense this team will be hard to beat. This year's Super Bowl run will all be in the hands of Sam Darnold. Is he good enough to get it done? We will see.
My Super Bowl Prediction:
Rams 27 Broncos 20
In what has been one of the most unpredictable years in NFL history, I have the Rams becoming Super Bowl champs for the 2nd time in 5 years. Out of everyone in the field, I trust Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford to get it done. As for the Broncos, I think that their experienced coaching and elite defense will be enough to win two games at home and make it to the Super Bowl. I think this would be a great matchup but the Rams elite offense will be too much to overcome.
